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Raven

Lottery

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Want to try your luck and maybe win yourself some coin?

3 silver coins and reward is 80% of the coin gathered and to make it a better start for everyone I'm putting in my 15 silver coins and 1 gold coin.
If you manage to guess only 5 numbers the reward is reduced down to 40% and if 4 then 20%. If more than one guesses the right numbers then the reward is of course split in between them.


The numbers will be chosen from six throws of six dice. First number will determine in which place the number will be taken from in the next round. So if in first row we get number 2 then in second row we'll check the number which is on spot two and so on.

[i]For example:[/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 2, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, 5, 4, 2, 3, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 2, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, 5, 4, 2, 3, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6 [/i]
Result: 2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 4, 2

And if you wish to participate?
You can send me a private message with your numbers here on forum or in game.
In both cases though you have to transfer the coins to me before the draw takes place if you wish for your ticket to be valid.
I will have my own notes on all of this but I suggest that in any case of complaints you take screen shots of transfers and the numbers you have sent me so that you can prove your claims.

[u][b]First draw will taken place on Friday, 17. 2. 2012 at 21:00 server time at the GoE.[/b][/u] Depending on the reponse to this lottery it will continue as long as possible and as long as I have the 6 dices. If I won't have them I hope the owner will be willing to lend them for this event.

[u]I am open to any suggestion on how this could be improved or changed so ask questions, recommend things etc.[/u]

[i]Edited out the wp reward.[/i] Edited by Raven

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Im sort of cautious on the wish point idea. It may not be clear but I think that is um buying a wish point because you are putting 6sc in you although only possibly getting a wish point out. I think there was a game similar to this one that the wish point was controversial. I dont have the time to look but its somewhere in there. If somebody finds the post please post a link.

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This may be held at the Gazebo of Equalibrium, please?
I am considering buying a ticket, and am slightly inconvenienced in terms of movement at the moment.

Great idea, BTW!

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Interesting reply.
I would consider it more "Selling the opportunity to a Wishpoint", as even stacking many many guesses, there is a vanishingly small chance of getting all 6 numbers correct.
Still, I see your point. But would counter it os by no means a "sure thing".

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[quote name='Seigheart' timestamp='1329240213' post='104271']
I'd like to see if this is actually allowed or not. He is not directly selling the WP. He is putting it up as a prize in a lottery.
[/quote]

This issue has been raised before, and to reuse metal Bunny's story:

In the Netherlands you are allowed marijuana for personal use but not allowed to sell it.
So some guys had the great idea to charge for entering a party, which then they would give it out for free.
Long story short the judge still convicted them of selling it, even if it was a roundabout way.

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Even if the wp part isn't going to go through it seems. The part with coins can still go through.
And there is a plan for wp's to be more common, right? This would be one way.

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WP's are more common.... You can get them freely from achievements and various other means.

Go ahead, people an gamble and lose their money as they want. But out WP's for that wouldnt be allowed by current rules.

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[quote name='Raven' timestamp='1329234585' post='104265']The numbers will be chosen from six throws of six dice. First number will determine in which place the number will be taken from in the next round. So if in first row we get number 2 then in second row we'll check the number which is on spot two and so on.

[i]For example:[/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets [b]2[/b], 4, 5, 6, 4, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, [b]5[/b], 4, 2, 3, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, 6, 1, 2, [b]2[/b], 6 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 2, [b]4[/b], 5, 6, 4, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, 5, 4, [b]2[/b], 3, 4 [/i]
[i]Raven throws 6 dice and gets 6, [b]6[/b], 1, 2, 2, 6 [/i]
Result: 2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 4, 2[/quote]

2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 6? No?

Also, you appear to have listed 7 numbers in your result...



LE: I fancied doing some math...

If you get 4 numbers correct, you get 20% of the total gained so far, you pick from 6 numbers for each dice throw, meaning the odds* are 1 in 6*6*6*6=1296 of getting it correct.

If you get 5 numbers correct, you get 40% of the total gained so far, you pick from 6 numbers for each dice throw, meaning the odds* are 1 in 6*6*6*6*6=7776 of getting it correct.

If you get all 6 numbers correct, you get 80% of the total gained so far, you pick from 6 numbers for each dice throw, meaning the odds* are 1 in 6*6*6*6*6*6=46656 of getting it correct.


Now ~personally~ I wouldn't even touch this unless if was closer to 3 rounds of dice to win, due to the frankly complete unlikelihood of anyone ever getting any coin back. Apart from you.



*Before anyone points out, yes I know these aren't entirely accurate as the number before picks the next dice number etc. but it then gets more complicated if I try and work that out. Edited by Grido

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[quote name='Grido' timestamp='1329256298' post='104285']
*Before anyone points out, yes I know these aren't entirely accurate as the number before picks the next dice number etc. but it then gets more complicated if I try and work that out.
[/quote]

Actually if you apply proper combinational logic and probability to it. your numbers are perfectly correct.

Each die being rolled has an fair 1/6 probability of being any number. meaning that no matter what number the first dice picks, it still picks a fair die that has a probability of 1/6 of being any one number.

Thusly the rolling the dice 6 times and doing the funny picking method, doesnt improve or decrease the random.

its still (1/6)^6 chance of getting all the numbers right.

In other words... there is no chance of you getting all right, and very little chance of anyone ever making any coin back on it.

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[quote name='Grido' timestamp='1329256298' post='104285']

*Before anyone points out, yes I know these aren't entirely accurate as the number before picks the next dice number etc. but it then gets more complicated if I try and work that out.
[/quote]

Actually, it is entirely accurate. ;) Same 1/6 chance with each die as it would be throwing it, assuming the dice are not tainted.

Raven, it may be too ambitious to get a game like craps or farkle going because of the amount of rules, but perhaps you can figure out something with better odds for this lottery. You could always add more ways to win such as certain number combos (ie. three 6's), less rolls, etc.



[sup]edit: Oh my, Chewie's math skills are way faster than mine! ><[/sup]

Edited by Phantom Orchid

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[quote name='Phantom Orchid' timestamp='1329260335' post='104287']
You could always add more ways to win such as certain number combos (ie. three 6's), less rolls, etc.
[/quote]

Yes, that could work. Thought that maybe something simmilar to poker could work. Like two same numbers as a pair, three of a kind and so on.

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But then you would just have people always betting on the simple special ones? Since what you win depends on what you pick >.>

Why not just make it so that if you get 3 right you get a refund? (with refunds done before any other allocations occur)

Oh, and because order isn't important, I'm not sure all those odds are correct. Your calculation doesn't factor in that there are additional roles, and really just seems to find the sample space.

I think the correct calculation would be:

[(6/n)x(30/{6-n})]/(36/6)

Which for 5 numbers in 6 gives a probability of 1 in 6 >.>

Which in turn leads me to believe I may have stuffed something up in that calculation, but whatever, the idea is there <.<
Especially since I am pretty certain the odds for getting 6 in 6 where correct >.>
I've probably just used the wrong number for sample space size, you can figure it out yourselves, I have shopping to do.


EDIT: You could always just run it so that...[list=1]
[*]The player picks their six numbers
[*]Your die roll determines the winners (ie, what you roll is what you get)
[*]You roll multiple times to represent multiple games (much the same way some lottery games give you multiple number picks, to improve your odds)
[*]The more people pay, the more games are valid for them.
[/list]
ie, someone pays 1 silver, they use the results from the first game. 2 silver, the first 3 games, 3 silver the first 5, etc. Or some other scale of profit progression.
This cuts out that weird and confusing rule about the first number in each line picking which number slot wins in the next line >.> Edited by Kyphis the Bard

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Warning, following post is just showing off that i still remember distribution maths. Ignore it if you're not a maths-freak.

Interesting that you remember the hypogeometric distribution at all... The problem you noticed is that there's no fraction bar between those numbers, there's just nothing ;)
Those are binomial coefficients, on your handy little calculator that's 'nCr' for 'n choose r', and when you apply that correctly you get 15/162316, roughly a chance of 0,0009%.

Strictly speaking, that mustn't be applied to a game of dices, though, because it's designed for drawing things from a finite mass without putting back. Classic example is the box with black and red balls where you've got to draw a few without looking and put them aside. Hypogeo tells you which combination of red and black is how likely to end out of the box.


And... all that correct-incorrect bla-bla is just each of us trying to look as if we knew more than the guys posting before, it doesn't really matter if the chance is .8% or .5%, that's just a theoretical game for those who like to play it :))

Edited by Burns

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Now personally I wouldn't get involved in this since the universe in its infinite wisdom desires to screw me over every chance it gets. Though that being said I can attempt to make a suggestion that would get people involved. If I had access to the dice in game I would run it differently but I don't so I wont. I would fix this more up like a official lottery. First of all I would charge less because if you look at an average lottery tickets go fora few dollars or sometimes five depending on the type of lottery, country and the cost of living in said location. I would make the lottery between 1 and 2 silver because of the amount of silver in the realm. I would then put in the 15 silver or gold out of my own reserves as you have done as a starting prize. There is a reason why a jackpot starts at an estimated 3 to 5 million because it means they will win something if they do win. You then take the silver added to the lottery and maybe loosen up the odds just a bit in order to hit the jackpot.

Now here are the two very important parts. First and foremost do not roll until the day of the event because you will want people to choose there numbers because people feel much more lucky when they have a choice. Second you allow the jackpot to increase week to week and you take 10% of the jackpot once it is won.

What I have given you are the basic things that the Canadian lottery corporations do to keep them selves aloft and keep them earning money instead of losing it. In the long run it turns out better for the lottery corporation because the more people that invest the more money they make over all and the investments increase exponentially with each new one added. Sure one person walks away with 9 million dollars but every time that person wins you get 1 million and chances are that person will only every win the lottery once.

The lottery is probably the largest house advantage yet in gambling.

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[quote name='Kamisha' timestamp='1329410829' post='104465']
If I had access to the dice in game I would run it differently but I don't so I wont.
[/quote]

Doesn't everyone technically have "access" to the dice in-game?

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Yes it is a shared item. I think there are some people who have the dice as an item that returns to them due to being a games master or something. This person obviously doesn't but that isn't my problem since I am not hosting it. Thing is I wouldn't be able to promise a time that I would have a draw or even if we would have it that week since I wouldn't be able to promise I had possession of them.
That being the case I am not going to even try start this my self. Besides it would cast me in a bad light.

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